LVMPD murder series - annual - 2010-2019

Homicide Forecast Lab

A forensic-grade dashboard that blends historical LVMPD homicide counts with a tuned forecasting model. Built for clarity, uncertainty awareness, and fast decisions.

Latest year

2019

84 murders reported

Average

118

annual mean

Trend

up

last 5 yrs vs prior 5
76120165209253
Historical counts
Forecast + interval

Range

Historical extremes

Lowest

76

2012

Highest

205

2017

Coverage

10 years

2010 to 2019

Model

Best performing forecast

Model

-

Holdout window: - years

MAE

-

lower is better

MAPE

-%

relative error

Forecast

Next 5 years outlook

2020

84

Low 8.27High 159.73
arima

2021

84

Low -23.1High 191.1
arima

2022

84

Low -47.18High 215.18
arima

2023

84

Low -67.47High 235.47
arima

2024

84

Low -85.35High 253.35
arima

Groq assistant

Talk to the dataset

Online
Ask me about trends, highs/lows, or the forecast outlook. I can only answer using the LVMPD annual series in this dashboard.